Can ANN outsmart the market?

02Feb10

Can ANN outsmart the market?

To illustrate why NN is a difficult approach, I can show two examples:
One is this forum:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=69699
And this as another forum:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=71007

What I saw in those forums that there was a lot of enthusiasm at the beginning, but
the authors faced too much challenge. The initial network had no predictive power, and the enthusiasm failed,
and they gave up.
That is a bad omen for me.
🙂

Forecasting the stock market is really a very difficult task. But we learn this fact only by experience.
We think we can outsmart the market. But there are pitfalls.
Most of the pittfall come when the backtest works, but in real life, the network doesn’t produce.
But, I will leave this discussion later.

On the other hand, I could see somebody who successfully cracked the market with NN prediction.
http://forex-pamm.com/performance.php
He has an annual %gain of 88%.
This guy is the winner of the Automated Trading Championship-2007, and he uses NN.
The success of him is a fact that tinkering with NN may worth the time.

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