3DPlot the NN

30May10

This post is the continuation of the previous posts. I wanted to see visually what the ANN has learnt.
We are lucky that currently we use only 2 inputs, therefore the function that the ANN learnt can be plotted in a 3D chart. On the X, Y axis we use the 2 inputs, the Z axis is the predicted %change of the RUT from the current RUT next week.

Note that I run the NN about 2500 times and the ANN backpropagation learning process stuck in local maxima many times, so it cannot find the ‘best’ function (global maxima).
Therefore every 2500 time the result of the learning process is a different ANN function approximator, their plots differ.
But by and large, I have these kinds of 3D plots that I show now.
The longTermMa is 180, the shortTermMA is 40 in that case. The number of neurons is 5.
This is the same plot from 3 different camera views to see better the longTermMA and shortTermMa parameters.

The first image is a general view, the second shows the longTermMA relation better, the third shows the shortTermMA relation better.
The axis means percent. For example, 0.1 on the longTermMA axis means that in that sample point, the RUT was 10% above the longTermMA.
This is our interpretation:
(We discussed a similar interpretation previously in one post, based on the statistical data.)

  • if the price is above the longtermMa, we are in bull market, weekly prices tend to go up
  • if the price is below the longtermMA (-15%…0%), it is bear market, weekly prices tends to go down
  • if the price is too much below the longtermMA(<-15%), they fell too much, it tends to revert for a while to the upside

The shortTermMA works like a spring.

  • if prices went up too much, they tends to revert down
  • if prices fell too much, they tends to go up
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